Take-up of digital television will reach nearly half a billion homes around the world by 2011, according to latest research from Informa Telecoms & Media. Its Global Digital TV report, just published, forecasts 40% digital penetration by 2011, up from an estimated 16% or 183m households by the end of 2006.
The UK currently tops the global penetration league but will fall to fifth place by 2011. By then South Korea will be the only country with 100% digital penetration, though another eight countries will be above 90% and 26 countries will exceed 50%.
Adam Thomas, Informa's media research manager, said: "By 2011, 40% of the world's TV homes will receive digital signals—or nearly 500m households. This indicates that digital growth will accelerate as the decade progresses, especially outside North America and western Europe."
More than 344m digital homes will be added to the total between end-2005 and end-2011. China will be a major contributor to this increase, accounting for 98m of the extra homes—or 28% of the global increase in these years. Other significant rises will come in the US (52m more), Japan (35m) and India (19m).
Thomas added: "These four countries combined will account for 60% of the extra digital households. However, most countries will experience significant additions to their digital household total."
Cable will be the main source of digital TV households, bringing in 274m homes by 2011. Direct-to-home (DTH) satellite will be the next most popular delivery system at 109m. There will be 70m digital terrestrial TV (DTT) homes (who do not subscribe to other services) and 35m households receiving internet protocol television (IPTV) services.
Informa said 738m homes would still take analogue signals in 2011, "so digital growth is likely to extend way beyond the forecast period".
Informa's Western European TV report, published earlier this month, said four Western European homes in every 10 would have digital television by the end of 2006, with digital penetration rising to more than 100m households during 2010 and reaching 75% penetration, or 116m homes, by the end of 2011.
Lovelace Consulting | 20.09.2006