Total television viewing among 16 to 34-year-olds is set to rise from 2010 onwards after a period of decline. According to media researcher Attentional, formerly known as David Graham and Associates, the rise from 2010 is due to the growth of the 16-34 age group as a result of immigration.
Attentional's viewing model predicts average daily viewing among 16 to 34-year-olds will fall from around three hours per day in 2006 to 2.86 hours in 2012, due to competition from new media. But the growth in the 16-34 age group will see total viewing levels rise from 2010, "bringing it back to just under the 2006 level by 2012".
Attentional said media group Viacom, which owns the MTV, VH1, Nickelodeon and Paramount brands, would gain more audience share among the 16-34 demographic than any other broadcaster. Attentional's demographic-level forecast shows Viacom's viewing share among 16 to 34-year-olds rising from 4.06% across all UK television households in 2006, to 4.68% in 2012—when the last of the UK's analogue terrestrial transmitters is switched off.
"The forecasts show viewing becoming ever more fragmented across a wider range of channels, with Viacom picking up more share among 16-34s than its rivals. Four broadcasters are predicted to lose share among this age group: BBC, Channel 4, ITV and BSkyB," said Attentional.
The researcher predicts that at the other end of the age spectrum, the UKTV channels are well placed to capitalise on the 'grey boom' that will see many older viewers rapidly converting to digital reception as the UK approaches switchover.
Lovelace Consulting | 18.05.2007